Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to earn 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among TEs.
- Hunter Henry’s sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 67.4% to 71.6%.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- Hunter Henry has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry’s 24.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 35.1.
- Hunter Henry has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (39.0).
- The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 39.0) versus TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
