Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hunter Henry from EV Insight

Hunter HenryReceiving Yards

Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to earn 3.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among TEs.
Hunter Henry’s sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 67.4% to 71.6%.

Cons

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Hunter Henry has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry’s 24.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 35.1.
Hunter Henry has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (39.0).
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 39.0) versus TEs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards