Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
49ers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Deebo Samuel to accrue 6.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Deebo Samuel’s skills in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this year, averaging 10.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 7.67 figure last year.
- The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Deebo Samuel has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (33.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).
- Deebo Samuel’s 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 55.7.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
