WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 71.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.7 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (72.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.0%).
- Dawson Knox has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).
- Dawson Knox’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a mere 7.91 yards-per-target compared to a 9.39 figure last year.
- The New England Patriots defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 41.0) vs. TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
