Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Raiders vs. Chargers
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 94.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 94.5 (-105) after it opened @ 92.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to garner 10.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Davante Adams has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (115.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
- Davante Adams’s 74.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for WRs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- Davante Adams has compiled many fewer receiving yards per game (89.0) this year than he did last year (101.0).
- Davante Adams’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 62.9%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
98
Receiving Yards
98
Receiving Yards
