Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (+110/-140).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-140) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a big 8.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to accrue 8.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Courtland Sutton has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 59.5% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 15th percentile among WRs
The Baltimore Ravens cornerbacks project as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards