Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-104) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Saints are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to notch 8.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
- Chris Olave has posted a whopping 123.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
- Chris Olave has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 60.9% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 16th percentile among WRs
- Chris Olave has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.5%) vs. wideouts this year (62.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
