Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-104) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).

Pros

The Saints are a massive 8.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to notch 8.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
Chris Olave has posted a whopping 123.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among WRs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.3 plays per game.
Chris Olave has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 60.9% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 16th percentile among WRs
Chris Olave has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.5%) vs. wideouts this year (62.5%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards