Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 11.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been much more involved in his team’s pass game this season (33.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted significantly more air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.7% to 75.7%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.2%) vs. wideouts this year (63.2%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
101
Receiving Yards