Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- Allen Lazard has gone out for fewer passes this year (95.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.2%).
- Allen Lazard has totaled far more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Allen Lazard has totaled quite a few more receiving yards per game (61.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
- Allen Lazard’s talent in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, notching 5.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 3.44 figure last season.
Cons
- The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
