Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight

Allen LazardReceiving Yards

Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

Allen Lazard has gone out for fewer passes this year (95.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.2%).
Allen Lazard has totaled far more air yards this year (96.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Allen Lazard has totaled quite a few more receiving yards per game (61.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
Allen Lazard’s talent in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, notching 5.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 3.44 figure last season.

Cons

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards