Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 262.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 262.5 (-110) after it opened @ 273.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in football.
- Tom Brady has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (286.0) this season than he did last season (319.0).
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-least yards in football (just 204.0 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in football vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
298
Passing Yards
298
Passing Yards
