Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 310.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 310.5 (-115) after it opened @ 308.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Patrick Mahomes has passed for substantially more yards per game (349.0) this year than he did last year (313.0).

Cons

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
324
Passing Yards