Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bengals vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 310.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 310.5 (-115) after it opened @ 308.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Patrick Mahomes has passed for substantially more yards per game (349.0) this year than he did last year (313.0).
Cons
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 5th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
324
Passing Yards
324
Passing Yards
