Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 225.5 yards (-115/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 225.5 (-115) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Mac Jones has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a terrific 69.3% Completion%, ranking in the 97th percentile.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a measly 54.9 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards