WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Kyle AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Texans vs. Browns
Right now, Kyle Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 209.5 (-133) after it opened @ 219.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will be rolling out backup QB Kyle Allen in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.7 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
