Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 166.5 yards (+120/-166).
The public has bet the OVER up to 166.5 (+120) after it opened @ 165.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the league versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (73.8%).
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, conceding 8.21 yards-per-target: the 7th-most in the NFL.
- The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- Justin Fields has been among the worst QBs in the NFL this year, averaging 149.0 yards per game while ranking in the 11th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
132
Passing Yards
132
Passing Yards
