Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Patriots vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-105/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 263.5 (-115) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 71.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.35 seconds per snap.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- Josh Allen has been among the best QBs in football this year, averaging a stellar 287.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 214.0 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league against the New England Patriots defense this year (65.2%).
- The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.99 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.
- The New England Patriots cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards
250
Passing Yards
