Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
49ers vs. Dolphins
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 248.5 (-127) after it opened @ 247.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in football this year with a stellar 67.1% Completion%, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most effective quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 8.07 yards-per-target while checking in at the 91st percentile.
- The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 33.5 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.59 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards
251
Passing Yards
