Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Lions vs. Jaguars
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-148/+108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 248.5 (-148) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in football.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the 8th-worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
287
Passing Yards
287
Passing Yards
