Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Rams vs. Seahawks
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 251.5 (-115) after it opened @ 249.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.38 seconds per play.
- The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Geno Smith has been among the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a terrific 255.0 yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.
- Geno Smith’s passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.8% to 72.4%.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
258
Passing Yards
258
Passing Yards
