NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Cowboys vs. Colts
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 241.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 241.5 (-115) after it opened @ 249.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Dak Prescott has been among the most accurate passers in the NFL this year with a stellar 67.1% Completion%, checking in at the 82nd percentile.
- Dak Prescott has been among the most effective QBs in football this year, averaging an impressive 7.70 yards-per-target while checking in at the 79th percentile.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.11 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in football.
Cons
- The Cowboys are an enormous 10.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 8th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- Dak Prescott has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (234.0) this year than he did last year (288.0).
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 207.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
293
Passing Yards
293
Passing Yards
