Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Bears vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 228.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 228.5 (-110) after it opened @ 244.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league against the Chicago Bears defense this year (74.3%).
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, surrendering 8.65 yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in football.
- The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.
Cons
- The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
- Aaron Rodgers has passed for substantially fewer yards per game (233.0) this season than he did last season (269.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
219
Passing Yards
219
Passing Yards
