Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to notch 17.7 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Travis Etienne to be much more involved in his offense’s running game this week (71.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (51.7% in games he has played).
- Travis Etienne has averaged 72.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
- Travis Etienne’s ground effectiveness (5.49 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (90th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in run blocking.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 86 per game) versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
89
Rushing Yards
89
Rushing Yards
