Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Najee Harris from EV Insight

Najee HarrisRushing Yards

Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 16.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Najee Harris has run for significantly fewer yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering just 4.19 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards