Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael CarterRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jets vs. Bears
Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 5th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 49.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to notch 18.7 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Carter to be a much bigger part of his team’s run game this week (59.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.9% in games he has played).
- Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (146 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
Cons
- The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Mike White in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.
- Michael Carter has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (45.0).
- Michael Carter’s rushing effectiveness (3.66 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (12th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards
83
Rushing Yards
