Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Latavius MurrayRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Panthers vs. Broncos
Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-125) after it opened @ 64.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to total 16.8 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a more integral piece of his offense’s running game this week (60.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (49.0% in games he has played).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-most yards in the league (139 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Latavius Murray’s running effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 3.46 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.32 rate last season.
- The Carolina Panthers linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.
- The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
