Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Latavius Murray from EV Insight

Latavius MurrayRushing Yards

Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 62.5 (-125) after it opened @ 64.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to total 16.8 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a more integral piece of his offense’s running game this week (60.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (49.0% in games he has played).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-most yards in the league (139 per game) vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

Cons

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Latavius Murray’s running effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 3.46 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.32 rate last season.
The Carolina Panthers linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards