Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Kenyan Drake from EV Insight

Kenyan DrakeRushing Yards

Right now, Kenyan Drake’s rushing yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-133) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).

Pros

The Ravens are a huge 13-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Kenyan Drake has rushed for substantially more yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (21.0).
Kenyan Drake’s running effectiveness has improved this season, accumulating 4.75 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.99 rate last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Kenyan Drake to be a much smaller part of his team’s running game this week (21.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.0% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.32 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Rushing Yards