Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Seahawks vs. Raiders
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per snap.
- The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 37.0% run rate.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down just 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks have used motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
97
Rushing Yards
97
Rushing Yards
