Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chiefs vs. Rams
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to notch 15.6 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Isiah Pacheco to be much more involved in his offense’s run game this week (59.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.7% in games he has played).
- Isiah Pacheco’s rushing effectiveness (5.00 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile among RBs).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 11th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 38.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 96 per game) against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 2nd-best DE corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
