WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Devin SingletaryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Bills
Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bills are a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (155 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
- The Detroit Lions safeties rank as the 29th-worst unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Devin Singletary to be a much smaller part of his team’s running game this week (42.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.3% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Rushing Yards
46
Rushing Yards
