Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (-110) after it opened @ 94.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to total 24.0 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
- Derrick Henry has earned 84.8% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Derrick Henry has picked up 100.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (100th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Rushing Yards
104
Rushing Yards
