Week 12 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (+108/-148).

The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (+108) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to earn 19.3 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has garnered 83.9% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has picked up 77.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (95th percentile).
Dameon Pierce has been among the best running backs in the NFL at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.45 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 78th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in football this year in regard to run defense.

Cons

The Houston Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Kyle Allen this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Rushing Yards