Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to accumulate 13.1 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- Austin Ekeler has garnered 58.9% of his team’s carries this year, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 5.14 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 34.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
- Austin Ekeler has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.74 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
