Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to total 13.4 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
- Aaron Jones has been given 53.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
- Aaron Jones has rushed for a lot more yards per game (66.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Cons
- The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
