Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-120).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup quarterback Bryce Perkins in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a big 16.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Tyler Higbee’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 64.2%.
Tyler Higbee’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, notching a measly 5.91 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 rate last year.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards