Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Chiefs vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-120).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup quarterback Bryce Perkins in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a big 16.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Tyler Higbee’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 64.2%.
- Tyler Higbee’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, notching a measly 5.91 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 rate last year.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the league.
- The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
