Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-114).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

Cons

T.J. Hockenson’s 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has compiled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, notching just 2.56 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 rate last year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) to TEs this year (62.9%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards