Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Patriots
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- T.J. Hockenson’s 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson has compiled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
- T.J. Hockenson’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, notching just 2.56 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 rate last year.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) to TEs this year (62.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
