Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Robert WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Bengals
Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- Robert Woods has been a big part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 20.6% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
- The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (7th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 52.7 plays per game.
- Robert Woods has accumulated quite a few less receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64%) vs. wideouts this year (64.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
