MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Robert TonyanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Eagles vs. Packers
Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-115/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-120) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Packers are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Tonyan to earn 4.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Robert Tonyan has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 14.1% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
- Robert Tonyan has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 32.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 30.07 seconds per play.
- The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Robert Tonyan has notched far fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).
- Robert Tonyan’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling just 7.15 yards-per-target compared to a 8.76 rate last season.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.6%) to TEs this year (60.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
