Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-125) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 8.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth has posted significantly more air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
- Pat Freiermuth’s 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 26.8.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
- Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.0% to 69.0%.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
