Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 13.5 (-110) after it opened @ 15.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Mo Alie-Cox’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 57.5% to 78.5%.
- Mo Alie-Cox has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.00 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.
- Mo Alie-Cox has been among the top TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 77th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Mo Alie-Cox has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
- Mo Alie-Cox’s 9.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 21.0.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (69.1%) vs. TEs this year (69.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
