Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mo Alie-Cox from EV Insight

Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 13.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 13.5 (-110) after it opened @ 15.5 (-110).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Mo Alie-Cox’s ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 57.5% to 78.5%.
Mo Alie-Cox has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among TEs, averaging a terrific 9.00 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Mo Alie-Cox has been among the top TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 77th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mo Alie-Cox has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (8.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Mo Alie-Cox’s 9.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 21.0.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (69.1%) vs. TEs this year (69.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards