Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-125) after it opened @ 27.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accrue 3.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki’s ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.2% to 72.9%.
Mike Gesicki’s receiving efficiency has been refined this year, notching 9.02 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.85 mark last year.
Mike Gesicki’s skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, accumulating 3.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 2.85 figure last season.
The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the league (52.0) to TEs this year.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards