Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- Mark Andrews has been used less as a potential target this year (94.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (84.1%).
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to notch 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
- Mark Andrews has accrued a monstrous 92.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile among tight ends.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Ravens are a huge 13-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Mark Andrews has put up a lot fewer receiving yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
