Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Lawrence Cager from EV Insight

Lawrence CagerReceiving Yards

Right now, Lawrence Cager’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 16.5 (-120).

Pros

The Giants are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has not been good when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.36 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.2% pass rate.
The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 122.0) versus WRs this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64%) to WRs this year (64.0%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
19
Receiving Yards