Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
49ers vs. Saints
Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (+100) after it opened @ 23.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Saints are a heavy 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential target this season (70.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (34.8%).
- THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to earn 4.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
- Juwan Johnson has accumulated far more air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 56.5 plays per game.
- Juwan Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has declined this year, notching a measly 8.08 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 rate last year.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 31.0) versus TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
