Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 85.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-114).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
Justin Jefferson has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (107.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).

Cons

Justin Jefferson has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (108.0 per game) than he did last season (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson’s 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots defense has surrendered the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 130.0) to WRs this year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) versus WRs this year (61.9%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
108
Receiving Yards