Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for JuJu Smith-Schuster from EV Insight

JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards

Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to total 7.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 39.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 28.8.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has accumulated many more receiving yards per game (71.0) this season than he did last season (23.0).

Cons

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus WRs this year, conceding 7.58 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards