Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (+104/-142).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-142) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets will be starting backup quarterback Mike White in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to notch 6.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 22.1% this year, which places him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Garrett Wilson has been among the best WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 55.0 yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (71.6%) versus wideouts this year (71.6%).

Cons

The Jets are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards