Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Jaguars vs. Ravens
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 30.5 (-125) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a heavy 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Evan Engram to notch 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among TEs.
- Evan Engram has been among the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
