Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Diontae Johnson has put up a colossal 89.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among wideouts.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has not been good when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.96 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
Diontae Johnson’s 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 67.8.
Diontae Johnson has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards