WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Colts vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to notch 8.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- Diontae Johnson has put up a colossal 89.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among wideouts.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has not been good when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.96 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
- Diontae Johnson’s 57.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 67.8.
- Diontae Johnson has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
