Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Demarcus Robinson from EV Insight

Demarcus RobinsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Demarcus Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-120) after it opened @ 37.5 (-110).

Pros

Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Demarcus Robinson has been a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this season (14.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (5.9%).
Demarcus Robinson has accrued significantly more air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Demarcus Robinson has put up many more receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (17.0).

Cons

The Ravens are a huge 13-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards