Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Lions vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Dawson Knox has been among the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a stellar 35.0 yards per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
- The Detroit Lions defense has yielded the 3rd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (62.0) versus TEs this year.
Cons
- The Bills are a heavy 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 29.23 seconds per snap.
- Dawson Knox has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (71.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (84.0%).
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
