Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (+100) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a heavy 7.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.1 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
- David Njoku has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (57.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
