Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Godwin from EV Insight

Chris GodwinReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-105) after it opened @ 57.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to earn 9.0 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Chris Godwin has been a big part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.6% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Chris Godwin has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (61.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin has totaled many fewer receiving yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards